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Is Solar Worth It in 2026 Without the Federal Tax Credit?

The 30% federal residential solar credit ended December 31, 2025. Here is what that actually means for homeowners deciding whether solar still makes financial sense in 2026, and which states still offer compelling economics without federal help.

By the Solar Installers Near Me Team • Published

Quick answer

Is solar worth it in 2026 without the federal credit?

Solar remains financially worthwhile in 2026 for homeowners in high-electricity-rate states with functioning production incentives, particularly Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois, where estimated payback periods still fall in the 6 to 10 year range without any federal residential credit. In low-rate states without meaningful state programs, payback periods now stretch to 15 to 19 years. The Section 25D residential credit expired December 31, 2025 under H.R.1, signed July 4, 2025. There is no federal residential solar credit in 2026.

Key facts

  • The 30% federal residential solar credit (Section 25D) ended December 31, 2025. H.R.1 (OBBBA), signed July 4, 2025, terminated it.

  • Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Illinois have state incentives strong enough to keep solar financially competitive without federal help.

  • Leases and PPAs allow third-party solar companies to claim the Section 48E commercial credit. Construction must begin by July 4, 2026 for that full-credit window.

  • In low-rate states without state programs, payback is now 15 to 19 years. Honest expectation-setting is required there.

  • Dealer fees on solar loans typically run 19 to 35 percent of system cost. Ask every installer to show this as a dollar line item before you sign.

The 2026 reality

What H.R.1 actually did, and what survived.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, 2025 (Public Law 119-21), terminated the Section 25D Residential Clean Energy Credit for solar systems placed in service on or after January 1, 2026. The law contains no phase-down and no grandfathering for contracts signed before the deadline. A system installed in January 2026 receives zero federal residential credit even if a contract was signed in September 2025.

If you installed solar before December 31, 2025, any unused portion of the credit carries forward. That carryforward applies only to pre-2026 installations; it does not apply to 2026 systems.

Three programs survived the legislation intact. First, the commercial credit under Section 48E remains active. Commercial projects where construction begins by July 4, 2026 can still claim the 30 percent base credit with a full placed-in-service window through December 31, 2030. Second, state solar incentive programs are entirely separate from federal law and unaffected by H.R.1. Third, lease and PPA structures create a path for homeowners to benefit indirectly from the commercial credit through lower monthly rates.

Federal residential credit for 2026 systems. Section 25D expired.
0
Year estimated payback in top-tier states (MA, NJ, RI, NY, IL). Source: EnergySage mid-2026.
6-10
Section 48E commercial credit. Construction must begin by July 4, 2026.
30
Typical solar loan dealer fee range. Disclosed as a dollar amount on every proposal we present. Source: CFPB 2025.
19-35

Where solar still works well

Five states where the math still works without the federal credit.

State programs, high electricity rates, and functioning net-metering rules are the lever now. These five states have the strongest combination of those factors. All payback estimates below assume zero federal residential credit.

Massachusetts

Estimated payback: 7 to 9 years

  • SMART 3.0: $0.03/kWh for 10 years
  • $1,000 state income tax credit
  • Full retail net metering at 30+ cents/kWh
  • ConnectedSolutions battery income: $1,000 to $1,500/year
Massachusetts solar guide

New York

Estimated payback: 7 to 10 years

  • NY state income tax credit: 26% up to $10,000 (effective Jan 1, 2026)
  • NY-Sun rebates (Consolidated Edison territory and upstate)
  • Average electricity rate: ~30 cents/kWh
  • 1:1 net metering preserved as of June 2026
New York solar guide

New Jersey

Estimated payback: 7 to 9 years

  • SuSI/ADI production incentive: $85.90/MWh for 15 years (EY2025-26 rate)
  • ~$816 to $1,031/year per 8 kW system from production incentive alone
  • 1:1 full retail net metering
  • Solar property tax exemption through June 2026
New Jersey solar guide

Maryland

Estimated payback: 8 to 11 years

  • SREC market: Solar Renewable Energy Credits (~$75 to $90/SREC, verify current price)
  • Clean Energy Grant Program (CEGP): $1,000 residential rebate (verify availability)
  • Average electricity rate: ~17 cents/kWh
  • 1:1 net metering with full retail credit
Maryland solar guide

Illinois

Estimated payback: 8 to 11 years

  • Illinois Shines upfront REC payment: $11,000 to $12,000 typical for 8-10 kW (block availability varies)
  • Covers 30 to 40% of installed cost in many cases
  • Solar property tax exemption
  • Verify current block availability at illinoisshines.com before planning
Illinois solar guide

Not in one of these five states?

We cover all 50 states. Each state page shows the actual utility rates, net-metering rules, and available state incentives for your specific market.

Browse all state guides

The path to federal value

How leases and PPAs still connect to the 30 percent commercial credit.

When a solar company owns the equipment under a lease or PPA, that company can claim the Section 48E commercial credit. If construction begins by July 4, 2026, the company may pass a portion of those savings to you through lower monthly rates. You do not receive the credit yourself, but you benefit indirectly from it. This is the only mechanism by which a homeowner in 2026 benefits from a federal solar tax program.

Commercial solar projects must begin construction by July 4, 2026 to qualify for the 30 percent Section 48E federal tax credit. After that date, the system must be placed in service by December 31, 2027.

Ask About Lease and PPA Options
Financing options compared: federal value access in 2026
Category Option Who Owns the System Federal Credit Access in 2026 Dealer Fee Risk (dollar amount disclosed) Best For
Cash purchase Cash You None. Section 25D expired Dec 31, 2025. None (no loan) Fastest payback, no financing cost, full ownership.
Solar loan Loan You None. Residential credit expired. High risk: 19 to 35% of system cost. Ask for dollar amount. Full ownership without upfront cash. Verify dealer fee before signing.
Solar lease Lease Solar company Indirect: company claims 48E, may pass savings through lower monthly rate. Construction must begin by July 4, 2026. N/A (no loan) Low upfront cost. Access to federal value indirectly. Review escalator clause.
Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) PPA Solar company Indirect: same 48E pass-through as lease. Construction deadline applies. N/A (no loan) Pay only for what you produce. State legality varies -- verify your state.
  1. PPA legality varies by state. Not available in all markets. Confirm with advisor before planning.
  2. Section 48E construction deadline: July 4, 2026. After this date, placed-in-service deadline shifts to December 31, 2027.
  3. Dealer fee figures from CFPB Issue Spotlight on Solar Financing, 2025.

Before you sign

Three questions that every solar proposal must answer.

  1. Step 1: What state and local incentives apply to my specific address and utility territory?

    State averages mask enormous variation. In Missouri, Evergy customers get full retail net metering and Ameren customers do not. In Michigan, DTE Solar Currents participants receive substantially better economics than the standard net billing terms. Your utility territory matters more than the state average. Ask the installer to run your specific utility and zip code.

  2. Step 2: What is the payback period using zero federal residential credit for a 2026 system?

    An installer who quotes payback assuming a 30 percent federal credit is quoting 2024 numbers on a 2026 purchase. Ask them to re-run the calculation with zero federal residential credit. The resulting payback period is the real 2026 number. Any installer who cannot or will not run that scenario is not giving you accurate information.

  3. Step 3: What is the dealer fee on any financed option, stated as a dollar amount?

    Dealer fees on solar loans typically run 19 to 35 percent of system cost and are rolled into the loan principal without a separate line item. On a $30,000 system, a 25 percent fee adds $7,500 to what you owe. Ask for the dealer fee in dollars, not as a percentage of the interest rate or a vague "financing cost." If the installer cannot or will not disclose it, consider that a signal.

Why no door-knocker, no commission, no shared lead matters in 2026

The consumer-protection case for working with an independent advisor is stronger in 2026 than it was in 2024. The American Prospect and Grist documented the door-knocker crisis. The CFPB complaint data shows a roughly 500 percent growth in solar complaints since 2019.

Why we never knock

Get the specific numbers for your address, utility, and situation.

A free in-home assessment walks through your actual bill, your roof, your utility's net-metering rules, and every incentive that applies to your zip code. No shared lead. No commission. No pressure.

Q and A

What people ask about the 2026 credit situation

Direct answers. No redirect to a sales call before explaining the basics.

Is the 30 percent federal solar credit really gone for homeowners in 2026?

Yes. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025 (Public Law 119-21), terminated the Section 25D Residential Clean Energy Credit for systems placed in service on or after January 1, 2026. There is no phase-down. A homeowner who installs solar in 2026 receives zero federal residential tax credit. Source: IRS.gov FAQs for Public Law 119-21.

What is Section 25D and what is Section 48E?

Section 25D was the Residential Clean Energy Credit, available to homeowners who purchased or financed a solar system. It provided a 30 percent credit that expired December 31, 2025. Section 48E is the Clean Electricity Investment Credit, which applies to commercial projects and third-party-owned residential systems. Section 48E is still active for projects where construction begins by July 4, 2026, with a full placed-in-service window through December 31, 2030.

How does a lease or PPA capture federal value in 2026?

When a solar company owns the equipment under a lease or PPA, that company (not the homeowner) is the purchaser of record. The company can claim the Section 48E commercial credit if construction begins by July 4, 2026. The company may pass a portion of those savings to the homeowner through lower monthly lease or PPA rates. The homeowner does not receive a tax credit directly. Whether the pass-through is meaningful depends on the specific rate offered by the leasing company.

Can I still get the federal credit if I signed a contract in 2025?

No. The determining date is when the system is "placed in service," which means when it is installed, inspected, and operational. The law has no grandfathering provision for contracts signed before December 31, 2025. A system installed in 2026, regardless of when the contract was signed, receives no Section 25D residential credit. If your system was placed in service before December 31, 2025, any unused credit portion carries forward via IRS Form 5695.

Is California solar worth it in 2026 without the federal credit?

It depends heavily on your utility and whether you add battery storage. Under California NEM 3.0, the large IOUs (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E) export electricity at roughly $0.05 to $0.08 per kWh rather than full retail. Without battery storage, payback under NEM 3.0 runs 12 to 16 years. Add a battery and shift consumption to peak TOU hours, and payback can fall to 8 to 12 years. LADWP customers retain full retail net metering and have better economics. The SGIP battery rebate has general market funds exhausted as of mid-2026; equity tier funds may remain for qualifying customers.

A 30 percent credit offer in 2026 is a red flag?

Yes. Any solar quote that derives a residential "net cost after credit" using a 30 percent federal credit for a 2026 system is using an expired program. Section 25D ended December 31, 2025. An installer offering this calculation is either unaware of current law or actively misrepresenting the cost. Ask them to show you the payback period with zero federal residential credit. That is the actual 2026 number.

Ready to see what solar actually pencils out for your home in 2026?

A free in-home assessment takes about 90 minutes. An independent advisor reviews your utility bills, your roof, your utility's net-metering rules, and the specific state incentives for your zip code. No door-knockers. No commissions. No shared leads.

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